Swim With the Current
Youve probably heard me say over and over that 80% of your return on your portfolio comes from the market and the sector. But what the heck does that really mean?
In June 1998, Investors Business Daily summarized two studies on the causes of stock- price movement in two books: The New Science of Investing, by Dr. Robert Hagen and The Latent Statistical Structure of Securities Price Changes, by Benjamin King.
Those studies found that 31% of a company's stock-price action was tied to the market as a whole. Industry group action explained 37%, while broad sector action accounted for 12% of the price movement.
Both studies concluded that only 20% of the price action in a stock was determined by company fundamentals!
Unfortunately, most people were taught backwards. Most think gains and losses are only determined by picking the stock with the right fundamentals! Fundamentals are things like P/E ratio, good management, growth rates, new products, market share, etc. I'd venture a guess and say that most people spend 80% of their time (and sometimes 100% of their time!) trying to find the stock with the best set of fundamentals.
Yikes!
So what happens when a company "with great fundamentals" happens to be in a sector thats on defense? Or what if the whole market is on defense? The company could see their stock price get slammed (yes, even with great fundamentals!).
Say you bought at a stock a few months ago at $40. Today it is $20. The company may still be growing like crazy, but the market or the sector dragged it down. If the story didnt change, then didn't the fundamentals just get even better? It has to be a better value at this price, right? If you invest by using only the fundamentals, you lose.
Again, most of the returns you're going to get will depend on whether the market (and the sector the stock belongs to) is on offense or defense.
Look, everyone knows that if you're swimming with the current, it's an easier ride. There are times when the market is on offense (and you're moving with the current). Hey, it IS possible to make money when the current is against you. But the odds are stacked against you! So, try to swim with the current...swimming against the current is NOT recommended!
Offense? Defense? Huh?
When were on offense, we run offensive plays from our playbook. Meaning, well look to put money into the market to build our wealth. Were not going to buy everything in sight; we want to focus ONLY on the sectors that are also on offense.
When were on defense, well run plays designed to protect our assets. Defense doesnt mean run out and sell everything! Whats the goal when the defense comes on the field in a football game?
To prevent the other team (the market) from scoring against you!
When the market is on defense, well only call plays from our defensive playbook. Running a defensive strategy helps prevent us from making really stupid mistakes in our account and taking big losses. Defense can mean taking steps like buying protective puts against your holdings. Or possibly shave back a large investment in a stock or mutual fund.
Avoiding big losses alone will improve the performance for most people in the market.
How do we know whether to be on offense or defense? We use a tool that is an excellent indicator of the level of risk in the market. Fifty years ago, a technical analyst named A.W. Cohen came up with this tool he dubbed the bullish percent index. Cohen was looking for a way to tell when to be cautious near market tops and also aggressively optimistic near market bottoms.
If you think about it, isnt that what we all want? Something thatll tell us when the risk in the market is high...and when the risk in the market (or a sector) is low! And its been around for fifty years, ignored by many in the market!
The bullish percent index is the percentage of all the stocks in a universe that are currently on buy signals. Now, that universe may be all the stocks in the semiconductor or the financial sector. Or even all the stocks listed on the New York Stock Exchange.
Knowing when the risk is high in a particular area will go a long way toward improving your investment results!
When to take action
Weve discussed the bullish percent is all the stocks in your group that are currently on buy signals. We feel its the single best risk level indicator we have found. But how do you know when to take action?
If 90 out of 100 stocks in a given sector are currently on buy signals, the bullish percent index is said to be at 90% for that group. If only 30 of 100 are on buy signals, the bullish percent is 30%.
Now, if 90% of all stocks in a sector are already on buy signals, that means only 10% of the names in that group are NOT on buy signals.
Wed want to be cautious with that kind of high reading!
Hey, no one likes being the last guy to show up at a party, but thats what happens to a lot of individual investors. They get in near the top and get creamed when the sector or market takes a dive.
Now, what were measuring here is supply and demand. When there is demand, prices rise. When a sector reaches 90%, theres not much more that can move a group higher.
But thats NOT the time to sell.
See, stocks can hang around lofty levels for a LONG time. Its only when we see more and more companies in a sector (or market) start to give sell signals, we know that supply is overtaking demand. When that happens, lower prices are on the way.
Now, say last week we noticed that a sector had a bullish percent reading of 30% and this week its now at 38%. This is a group wed want to pay attention to! Not only are the readings going up, they are going up from low levels!
This is precisely the stuff we zoom in on when telling you where to put money to work!
Predictions
If we need to get out of something, wed sure like to know it NOW, not later!
Hindsight IS 20/20. But it wont help you avoid losses in your account. Weve given up predicting what the market will do because we use tools that tell us accurately what IS happening right now in the marketplace. The point and figure charts we use and the bullish percent index are tools that tell us whats happening today. These charts tell us what is in demand and what is in supply.
There are too many folks trying to complicate the investing process. Keep it simple. Just remember that anything with too much supply will see their prices fall. Anything in demand will see their prices rise. And we have a method of measuring exactly which stocks and mutual funds are in demand and which are in supply.
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Improve Your Game with Sport Performance Sunglasses
Sunglasses are fundamental in protecting the eyes from harmful ultraviolet (UV) rays and eye damage. With the popularity of almost every imaginable outdoor sport such as snowboarding, skiing, mountain biking, rock climbing, kayaking and golfing to name a few, the need for sports performance sunglasses is on the rise.
Much research and technology has gone into the making of sports sunglasses. The importance of having lightweight, durable, flexible and safe glasses is of special importance for the avid sports enthusiast.
First off you will want lenses that offer the ultimate in UVA and UVB protection. As UV light damages the cornea and retina causing future problems such as cataracts, macular degeneration, cancer of the eye or photokeratitis (sunburn of the retina), you will want lenses that have one hundred percent UV protection. The UV protection should be stated on the label, if it is not you probably dont want to buy the lenses.
Sports sunglasses offer many excellent features in the design and overall shape that will ensure comfort, fit and safety to withstand the rugged demands of active sports. Features such as shock frames, shatterproof polycarbonate lenses, durability, ventilation and non-slip grips are at the top of the list when selecting youre sports sunglasses. The lightweight shock frames provide excellent coverage that will not bounce or shift during athletic activity. Used for active life-styles the sunglasses will withstand the extra tough demands of active sports. The lightweight frames offer comfort, longwearing and absorbing qualities.
The shatterproof polycarbonate lenses prove great for people needing high impact resistance in a pair of sunglasses. Polycarbonate is one of the newest technologies in lens materials. The material is similar to that used for bullet resistant glass in autos. Because the polycarbonate material is naturally UV absorbing, the clear lenses can even boast one hundred percent UV protection. Some polycarbonate is approved for use in safety glasses. The shatterproof lenses are lightweight, impact-resistant, durable and scratch-resistant; the lenses are virtually break proof, peace of mind for those high impact sports enthusiasts. The polycarbonate eyewear is the only eyewear approved for use with most Police and Fire Departments.
The durability of the lenses is another important quality of the sports sunglasses. Having lenses and frames that are scratch resistant, lightweight yet durable is necessary with the demands of some of the high impact sports. Polyamide is a popular material used today for frames, great because it keeps its shape even under stress. Both sunglasses and goggles offer excellent ventilation systems within their lens and frame designs. This is an important feature to eliminate fog and condensation during activity, ensuring proper vision and safety while at the same time blocking incoming harmful rays. Lastly the no-slip temple grips and nose pads (usually made of rubber) is a feature that goes without explaining. The need for sunglasses to stay securely in place during athletic activity (while providing comfort and non-distorted vision) can be crucial given some sport situations.
Having the proper sports sunglasses can have a profound effect on an athlete's overall performance. Not only do sunglasses and eyewear protect the eyes from harmful UV rays, but also athletes wearing protective eyewear, such as goggles with polycarbonate (shatterproof) lenses are spared injury. Face shields using polycarbonate are also used for baseball catchers, hockey, and football players. Its important to never substitute regular sunglasses during sports. Sunglasses for standard street wear are not made of the same safety materials as sports sunglasses and will most likely not hold up if under impact, the glasses could shatter or bend causing pieces of the frame or lens to cause eye or even face injury.
Sports injuries are not the only danger while participating in athletic sports. Ultraviolet light from the sun is harmful even in the winter. UV light contributes to diseases such as cataracts, cancer, and photokeratitis (sunburn of the retina). It is important for snowboarders and skiers to always wear tinted goggles or sports sunglasses, as UV bounces off snow even on the cloudiest of days, this is also true of anyone participating in water sports as UV bounces off water.
Goggles in an amber or rose tint can be used to enhance the snow shadows on a ski slope indicating ridges or bumps on the surface, helping snowboarders and skiers alike decide where to turn and maneuver as to avoid catching edges and falling.
Other useful features that are appealing to sports enthusiasts are the mirror coatings, polarized lenses and various tints. The available multi-color flash mirror coatings reflect light providing anti-glare viewing. Polarized lenses block the vertically-reflected light coming into the lens making them appropriate for use around water, snow and driving, Some of the popular tints available are gray, amber and yellow. The gray, smoke and gray-green tints are the most common of tinted lens. They block out glare without changing the overall color perception and are great for all-weather use. The Amber, or brown tinted lens are good for blocking blue light which is common on overcast days. Amber helps improve both the contrast and depth perception making them a great choice for changeable weather patterns. The yellow tints improve contrast and give a heightened sense of visual acuity, and are great for driving.
Manufacturers are now marketing towards sports-specific sunwear. Frames and lenses are available that are made specifically for cyclists, golfers, boaters, rock climbers etc. Of course there are sports sunglasses that appeal to a wide variety of outdoor activities. Look into the convenient and practical changeable lens systems that allow the wearer to use clear lenses for darker conditions, dark lenses for sunny conditions or yellow and orange for low light conditions.
In conclusion, whatever outdoors sport you participate in, its a good idea to do a bit of research on what specific sport sunglasses are most appropriate for youre particular needs. Always insist on one hundred percent UVA and UVB protection. Look for sunglasses or goggles with anti-fogging feature such as double lenses, anti-fog coating and wide vents. With all the wonderful technology and modern design features available your sport sunglasses choice is sure to enhance your sports performance.
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Staging Homes for Top-Dollar Sales
Wouldn't it be nice to have Roger Hazards design team from "Sell This House" come visit for a weekend?
Many "redecorators" and designers offer "Staging Homes" services from $250 to $5,000. These services usually give good advice, some help with the actual work involved, and others even move in new furniture for you.
However, using Design Psychology strategies will help you make the right choices on what is necessary to stage your home for a top-dollar sale.
Residential Design Psychology encompasses your entire home setting, from the fist sighting, whether your home is a condominium, single family home, or a manufactured home. Design Psychology, based on years of research on how our environments affect our emotions, helps stage homes with the buyers emotions in mind. Also, this interior decorating system uses the underlying physiological response to design details-- how our senses react to colors, patterns, textures, and furnishings, to entice a buyer to REALLY want your home.
Home buyers make their ultimate home selection based on their emotional reactions to the properties they visit. The way their brains interpret what they see, hear, touch, smell, and even taste causes them to feel connected to the home they choose. Buyers may think they make a choice based on economics, but even this decision is based on the way they feel because they're getting a deal.
You, as a home seller, have two initial choices.
1. Sell your home as a bargain to investors or bargain shoppers with limited income, or
2. Sell your home for top dollar to your target market.
To prepare your home to sell to investors and bargain shoppers, all you need to do is look for a real estate agent who does a lot of advertising. This agent will list your home under market value. Then sit back and allow the agent to sell your home for a rock-bottom price. Don't be surprised when you get many offers for lower than your asking price right away.
If you want to work a little, or perhaps a lot, you can sell your home for top dollar. Explore ways to create a buyers dream home. Because buyers let their emotions rule their decisions, stage your home for your specific buyer profile. Learn how certain colors, textures, and even plants help attract buyers who will spend more money on your home. Get busy removing clutter, packing memorabilia, staging, and sell your home for top dollar. Don't be surprised when you get many offers for more than your asking price right away.
You may be able to assemble your own team of friends to help you clear out your crowded rooms, paint, and spiff up your gardens. Who needs Roger Hazards team when you've got a few good friends and Design Psychology?
(c) Copyright 2005 Jeanette J. Fisher All rights reserved.
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Free Dish Network Deals FAQ
First come first, is free Dish Network deals for real?
Yes, free Dish Network offers are for real. You can get free satellite TV equipments along with other free gifts such as DVR systems, DVD players and home theater systems for free when you subscribe to their service. However, this offer is only valid for the first time customer and you must commit yourself to one to one-and-a-half year contract.
What kind of satellite TV systems are the users getting from these free deals?
You will get up to four satellite receivers, a satellite dish as well as DVR systems (certain package) for free when you subscribe to Dish Network free deals. For satellite receivers, the system you will be getting probably will be Dish 311 and Dish 322; while for DVR systems, Dish Player DVR 510 is most likely the only DVR system that you can get for free. Other DVR systems such as DVR 625 and DVR 942 will cost you $19.90 to $250 for initial fees.
How does Dish Network make money?
Dish Network and their retailers are making money thru monthly subscription fee. To get your free Dish Network deals, you must commit yourself to one to one-and-a-half year contract. A basic Dish Network package will cost you around $30/month, so be prepared to pay for the money for at least one year if you are looking for free Dish Network offers.
Why get free Dish Network online?
You can see the steepest competition in satellite TV business on Internet. Whenever theres a huge competition going on in the retailing market, the consumers earn the best. Dish Network online offers are most recommended because Dish Network (or any other satellite TV) online retailers are the most aggressive people in satellite TV business. They provide lots of free incentive gifts, free installations, free shipping, online customer supports, and 24 hours live chat support to their customers. Sometimes the bargains are just too lucrative to be true. Further more, online retailers are able to run their business in a much lower operating cost compared to brick and mortar stores, thus they are the only one that can afford to bring you the best free Dish Network deal.
DirecTV or DISH Network?
Most people looking for satellite TV will compare these two major satellite TV providers. Though there are other satellite TV systems (ie; Sky Angel), DirecTV and Dish Network stand as the twin giants in the business. Between them they claim the overwhelming majority of all satellite TV systems sold in the United States.
Interestingly, the satellite system services offered by both DirecTV and Dish Network are practically the same -- both offer more than 200 program channels, integrated digital video recording (DVR) capabilities, high definition TV (HDTV) capabilities, stunning picture and sound quality and award-winning 24-hour customer service departments. Where they differ is in pricing and programming. DirecTVs packages are a little more expensive, however they do normally include more sports channels. If you are a football fans, NFL Sunday Tickets offered by DirecTV is something you must get. On the other hand, Dish Network offers more International and movie channels. If you like having more International channels such as Spanish (Dish Latino) or Chinese channels, Dish Network is more likely the choice to go for.
How does online order process works for Dish Network?
You place an order with an online satellite TV system retailer. Some actually have tools on their webpage that allows customers to design systems perfectly matched to their home. At the time of ordering you will schedule a time that a local professional installer can come to your home and install the system. The satellite system will either be shipped to your home before the installation date or the installer will bring it with them. It is really that easy. The retailers that have been around a few years have this process streamlined for efficiency. All the customer needs to do is be at home during the installation.
Do I need to install the dish my self?
No, Dish Network retailer workers will install the satellite system for you and its totally free of charge.Its included in the deal. So instead of sweating on it, just leave the installation works to the pro. You will be getting an access card once your dish system had been installed. The access card is like a license for your satellite system.
Wrapping things up
The last few years have seen an explosion of people choosing satellite over cable or network TV. Recent polls show some common reasons being superior picture quality, larger selection of channels and programs, increased availability, good customer service and the continuing drop in price.
However, with a hot product on Internet come scams and fraudulent deals. Hundred of satellite TV scam websites had pop up as satellite TV become one of the best sellers in the town. Buying satellite TV online become more and more risky as consumers always find themselves trapped in fake or overrated deals. Hence, if you are looking for Dish Network deals, getting the RIGHT Dish Network deals online is the most important thing to ensure you get into any undesired troubles.
Picking up the right Dish Network deal involved two major decisions: choosing the right retailers, and choosing the right programming. Always buy from reputable retailers and always choose only what you need. Do not get into huge programming package and pay a high monthly cost just because the dealers give an extra discount on them. If you would like to review some reputable online satellite TV retailers, Satellite TV Issue online satellite TV dealer list seems like a good place to start with.
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Fishing Resorts
There's nothing more relaxing than fishing at your favorite fishing spot. Whether one is a beginner or an adept at this ancient pass time, fishing can serve as an enjoyable hobby and sport. In fact, for those that love to fish, there are fishing resorts that one can visit and vacation at. Thus, there are prime spots for everyone to fish! Moreover, many fishing resorts are easily affordable, all you need to do is bring along your equipment!
For those who love to fish, resorts serve as a prime vacationing destination. There are resorts offering five star accommodation, full service restaurants, and a number or outdoor recreational activities to take part in along with any fishing expedition one may want to take. Water skiing, rafting, canoeing, hiking, horseback riding, cycling and more can all be had at different resorts in addition to your beloved pastime.
Moreover, if you enjoy hunting, in addition to being an avid fisherman, you can go hunting for deer, caribou, moose, bear, rams, and more when you visit many of the resorts and lodges designed specifically for such purposes.
There are many resorts and lodges to choose from when you want to fish. In fact, as an example, the state of Michigan has numerous sites one can visit and fish at. Ackeley Park Rapids, Cass Lake, Crane Lake, Detroit Lake, the Gunflint Trail Area, Hackensack, the Lake of the Woods, Lake Winnibigoshish, Lake Kabetogama, Lake Ely, Lake Mille Lacs, Leech Lake, Rainy Lake, Lake Vermillion, and the Upper Red Lake all offer fine opportunities to fish in the state of Michigan. Now imagine just as many offerings in other states and you can see the number of opportunities one can find to vacation and fish!
Some resorts offer hotels, while others offer cabins and a campground for quite relaxation. You can spend time on the beach or when you are not about to fish, you can spend time touring all the local hot spots and attractions. Cabins can be rustic or modern and will provide visitors with the ultimate sense of "living in the wilderness" and many of the cabins are large enough to handle big groups of people. Some cabins have a porch where one can sit and see the scenic views as the sun sets and twilight settles in. Cabins that are fully furnished with most everything one would require for comfort can be easily rented for a week or more and give the entire family a vacation worth remembering.
Some resorts and lodges also supply extra curricular activities to engage in when you are not fishing the waters. Volleyball, horseshoes, tennis, golf courses and hiking trails are just a few of the many alternatives such vacationing destinations supply. So, if you are planning to fish this vacation, your best bet is to visit a resort or lodge and get all of your entertainment needs met at one location. Moreover, your accommodatios will be waiting and ready for you and you will find yourself wanting to visit such resorts each and every year.
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